The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that the non-oil sector of the Nigerian economy could be stronger, benefitting from its recent growth momentum, higher production from the new Dangote Refinery, and supportive credit policies.
In IMF’s Executive Board 2021 Article IV Consultation
with Nigeria released recently, the global organisation added that Nigeria’s
ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement could also yield a
positive boost to the non-oil sector while oil production could rebound,
supported by the more generous terms of the Petroleum Industry Act.
According to the IMF, Nigeria exited the recession in
the fourth quarter of 2020 and its output rose by 4.1 per cent (y-o-y) in the
third quarter, with broad-based growth except for the oil sector, which is
facing security and technical challenges.
While growth was projected at 3 per cent for 2021, it
stated that headline inflation rose sharply during the pandemic, reaching a
peak of 18.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2021, but has since
declined to 15.6 per cent in December.
The institution attributed this to the new harvest season and
opening of land borders, although it noted that the reported unemployment rates
(end 2020) have yet to come down. It, however, confirmed that more recent
COVID-19 monthly surveys have shown that employment was back at its
pre-pandemic level.
